Head and neck cancer incidence is rising but the sociodemographic profile is unchanging: a population epidemiological study (2001–2020)

Increasing incidence of head and neck cancers (HNCs), driven by rising rates of oropharynx cancer (OPC), has been recorded around the world. This study examined trends in HNC and subsites (oral cavity, oropharynx, and larynx cancers) in Scotland focusing on assessing whether the sociodemographic profile has changed over the past 20 years.

Scottish Cancer Registry data (2001–2020) including European Age Standardised Rates of HNC and subsites were analysed in multivariate Poisson regression by age, sex, area-based socioeconomic status, and year of diagnosis (with interaction tests).

Overall HNC and oral cavity cancer (OCC) incidence remained relatively stable. OPC incidence rates increased by 78%, while larynx cancer incidence declined by 27%. Over time, there were marginal shifts to a slightly older age profile for HNC (p = 0.001) and OCC (p = 0.001), but no changes in OPC (p = 0.86) and larynx cancer (p = 0.29). No shift in the sex profile of HNC was observed except for minor increases in female OCC rates (p = 0.001), and the socioeconomic distribution remained unchanged across all HNC subsites.

There have been no significant changes in the sociodemographic profile of HNC in Scotland over the last 20 years, despite the changing trends in HNCs with dramatically increasing incidence rates in OPC and reducing larynx cancer. This information can be used to target or stratify HNC prevention and control.