Scholarlink

<p>Climate change poses increasingly severe challenges to crop production, yet the status and future trajectory of the irrigation-limited yield gap (IYG) remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively assessed the spatial-temporal patterns and future responses of IYG using a bottom-up framework. We categorized the IYG into closed and unclosed components based on the yield at current limited irrigation levels (<i>Y</i><sub>cir</sub>). Our results showed the IYG remains 32% unclosed, accounting for approximately one-tenth (about 26 million tons) of China’s total maize production. Regionally, pronounced disparities in yield sensitivity to irrigation were observed, with the Northwest exhibiting the highest and the Southwest the lowest. Both historical and future simulations revealed a significant declining trend in <i>Y</i><sub>cir</sub> and IYG across most northern provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Xinjiang). Increasing irrigation levels can offset most of these declines without diminishing marginal benefits. In the Northwest, more than 70% of the projected yield changes are identified as a mitigatable decrease, equivalent to 18% of historical yields. Conversely, the Northeast has nearly reached a climate-limited yield plateau with decreasing marginal benefits. Roughly 20% of the yield change in the North China Plain and Northeast is non-mitigatable. These findings inform region-specific irrigation strategies to sustain maize production in China.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Closing irrigation-limited maize yield gaps in China under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

查看全文
  • Dehai Liao,
  • Jun Niu,
  • Alex Wu,
  • Xixi Lu,
  • Wei Hu,
  • Xiaotao Zhang,
  • Baozhong Zhang,
  • Tiejian Li,
  • Francesco Accatino,
  • Yuannan Long,
  • Shaozhong Kang

摘要

Climate change poses increasingly severe challenges to crop production, yet the status and future trajectory of the irrigation-limited yield gap (IYG) remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively assessed the spatial-temporal patterns and future responses of IYG using a bottom-up framework. We categorized the IYG into closed and unclosed components based on the yield at current limited irrigation levels (Ycir). Our results showed the IYG remains 32% unclosed, accounting for approximately one-tenth (about 26 million tons) of China’s total maize production. Regionally, pronounced disparities in yield sensitivity to irrigation were observed, with the Northwest exhibiting the highest and the Southwest the lowest. Both historical and future simulations revealed a significant declining trend in Ycir and IYG across most northern provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Xinjiang). Increasing irrigation levels can offset most of these declines without diminishing marginal benefits. In the Northwest, more than 70% of the projected yield changes are identified as a mitigatable decrease, equivalent to 18% of historical yields. Conversely, the Northeast has nearly reached a climate-limited yield plateau with decreasing marginal benefits. Roughly 20% of the yield change in the North China Plain and Northeast is non-mitigatable. These findings inform region-specific irrigation strategies to sustain maize production in China.