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<p>Climate adaptation behaviors can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on food production and ecological security, yet the complex climate–environment interaction mechanisms remain unclear. We develop a Climate Adaptation–Environmental Multi-factor Feedback Framework integrating life cycle assessment, scenario modeling, and metacoupling analysis to track climate-driven dynamics of the food–water–energy–carbon (FWEC) nexus and evaluate how adaptation reshapes this nexus across input, output, and spillover systems. Using China’s Loess Plateau, we quantify 2020 agricultural footprints and simulate a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway to 2050 along with 12 adaptation scenarios. Under BAU, cultivated area is projected to expand by 22.4%, while grain yield declines by 15.8%. Climate change may shift the food production center 41–62 km northwestward and 43–115 m upward, with 47–65% yield losses in most counties. Adaptation scenarios show substantial benefits for food security and environmental sustainability, and adaptation measures also create spillover effects on major grain-exporting countries by reducing externalized environmental costs. This leads to potential global annual reductions of ~43 Mm³ in water use, ~0.08 PJ in energy consumption, and ~17 Mt of CO₂ emissions. Our findings highlight the critical role of adaptation behaviors in shaping the global FWEC nexus and advancing sustainability.</p>

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Impacts of climate adaptation on food production and environmental sustainability across metacoupling systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Lulu Qu,
  • Yuhao Zhang,
  • Xueqi Liu,
  • Yurui Li

摘要

Climate adaptation behaviors can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on food production and ecological security, yet the complex climate–environment interaction mechanisms remain unclear. We develop a Climate Adaptation–Environmental Multi-factor Feedback Framework integrating life cycle assessment, scenario modeling, and metacoupling analysis to track climate-driven dynamics of the food–water–energy–carbon (FWEC) nexus and evaluate how adaptation reshapes this nexus across input, output, and spillover systems. Using China’s Loess Plateau, we quantify 2020 agricultural footprints and simulate a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway to 2050 along with 12 adaptation scenarios. Under BAU, cultivated area is projected to expand by 22.4%, while grain yield declines by 15.8%. Climate change may shift the food production center 41–62 km northwestward and 43–115 m upward, with 47–65% yield losses in most counties. Adaptation scenarios show substantial benefits for food security and environmental sustainability, and adaptation measures also create spillover effects on major grain-exporting countries by reducing externalized environmental costs. This leads to potential global annual reductions of ~43 Mm³ in water use, ~0.08 PJ in energy consumption, and ~17 Mt of CO₂ emissions. Our findings highlight the critical role of adaptation behaviors in shaping the global FWEC nexus and advancing sustainability.