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<p>Dietary diversification increased edible vegetable oil (EVO) demand. Climate change intensifies temporal-spatial compound extreme heat and drought (terms to above extremes co-occurring spatially and temporally), risking nationwide oil crops production and EVO supply, but were rarely quantified. We developed a panel model using heat degree days (<i>HDD</i>), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (<i>SPEI</i>), irrigation conditions, and year (representing agricultural technology) as yield predictors. Year-types were categorized by extreme climate-induced production losses: normal, temporal-spatial extreme heat (<i>HDD</i> change), temporal-spatial drought (<i>SPEI</i> change), and temporal-spatial compound extreme heat and drought (<i>HDD</i> and <i>SPEI</i> change). Historical, extreme heat and drought caused a 6.6% (4.0%), 5.6% (3.6%), and 3.5% (2.1%) yield loss for soybean, peanut, and rapeseed without (with) irrigation, respectively. Future temporal-spatial compound extreme years: crop yields would decrease over 14.0% (12.8%), EVO self-sufficiency rate would decrease to 15.5–16.5% (19.0–21.9%) without (with) area expanding, indicating alarming oil crop yield reduction under extreme climate.</p>

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Impacts of temporal-spatial compound extreme heat and drought on oil crops in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Shibo Guo,
  • Chuang Zhao,
  • Zhao Jin,
  • Zhentao Zhang,
  • Zhijuan Liu,
  • Xiaoguang Yang

摘要

Dietary diversification increased edible vegetable oil (EVO) demand. Climate change intensifies temporal-spatial compound extreme heat and drought (terms to above extremes co-occurring spatially and temporally), risking nationwide oil crops production and EVO supply, but were rarely quantified. We developed a panel model using heat degree days (HDD), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), irrigation conditions, and year (representing agricultural technology) as yield predictors. Year-types were categorized by extreme climate-induced production losses: normal, temporal-spatial extreme heat (HDD change), temporal-spatial drought (SPEI change), and temporal-spatial compound extreme heat and drought (HDD and SPEI change). Historical, extreme heat and drought caused a 6.6% (4.0%), 5.6% (3.6%), and 3.5% (2.1%) yield loss for soybean, peanut, and rapeseed without (with) irrigation, respectively. Future temporal-spatial compound extreme years: crop yields would decrease over 14.0% (12.8%), EVO self-sufficiency rate would decrease to 15.5–16.5% (19.0–21.9%) without (with) area expanding, indicating alarming oil crop yield reduction under extreme climate.