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<p>The need for a livestock transition is widely acknowledged, entailing both production- and consumption-side adaptations. Yet the direction of this transition remains uncertain as a diversity of narratives and visions coexist. In this paper, we test the outcomes of dominant narratives and recurring elements of debates surrounding the livestock transition. We adopt a quantitative foresight scenario approach and apply it to the case of the Belgian livestock sector, testing four possible scenarios towards 2050 (Business as usual; Land sparing; Land sharing; Radical). Paying particular attention to the diversity of livestock farming systems and the inclusion of a multidimensional set of sustainability indicators, the results reveal the trade-offs that dominating visions entail. As no perfect scenario stands out, the exercise opens a space of options rather than singling out a unique vision. Beyond providing quantitative scenario results, we also take the opportunity to reflect on methodological choices and the usefulness of foresight approaches to advance sustainability transitions.</p>

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Narratives, trade-offs and scenarios to explore the livestock transition in Belgium

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月10日

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  • Anton Riera,
  • Noé Vandevoorde,
  • Antoine Squilbin,
  • Quentin Vandersteen,
  • Philippe V. Baret

摘要

The need for a livestock transition is widely acknowledged, entailing both production- and consumption-side adaptations. Yet the direction of this transition remains uncertain as a diversity of narratives and visions coexist. In this paper, we test the outcomes of dominant narratives and recurring elements of debates surrounding the livestock transition. We adopt a quantitative foresight scenario approach and apply it to the case of the Belgian livestock sector, testing four possible scenarios towards 2050 (Business as usual; Land sparing; Land sharing; Radical). Paying particular attention to the diversity of livestock farming systems and the inclusion of a multidimensional set of sustainability indicators, the results reveal the trade-offs that dominating visions entail. As no perfect scenario stands out, the exercise opens a space of options rather than singling out a unique vision. Beyond providing quantitative scenario results, we also take the opportunity to reflect on methodological choices and the usefulness of foresight approaches to advance sustainability transitions.