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<p>Water resources are fundamental to agricultural production and food security. Mega water infrastructure project play a critical role in addressing regional water allocation imbalances and meeting agricultural water demands. This study focuses on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWDP) in China. Using the Synthetic Control Method, it analyzes the MR-SNWDP’s impact on agricultural water consumption in Henan, a major grain-producing province. The results reveal that the MR-SNWDP has led to a consistent increase in both total water supply and agricultural water consumption in the region from 2010 to 2020 based on the comparative analysis of counterfactual simulation. The MR-SNWDP has significantly boosted grain production, with positive effects becoming evident from 2015, and culminating in a marked increase in grain output post-2017. This study advances the theoretical framework for evaluating large-scale water infrastructure projects and offers actionable insights to improve global water management and agricultural sustainability.</p>

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Evaluating the impact of the South-to-North water diversion project on regional grain production

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月30日

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  • Yuntong Zhao,
  • Qianxi Zhang,
  • Zhe Cheng

摘要

Water resources are fundamental to agricultural production and food security. Mega water infrastructure project play a critical role in addressing regional water allocation imbalances and meeting agricultural water demands. This study focuses on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWDP) in China. Using the Synthetic Control Method, it analyzes the MR-SNWDP’s impact on agricultural water consumption in Henan, a major grain-producing province. The results reveal that the MR-SNWDP has led to a consistent increase in both total water supply and agricultural water consumption in the region from 2010 to 2020 based on the comparative analysis of counterfactual simulation. The MR-SNWDP has significantly boosted grain production, with positive effects becoming evident from 2015, and culminating in a marked increase in grain output post-2017. This study advances the theoretical framework for evaluating large-scale water infrastructure projects and offers actionable insights to improve global water management and agricultural sustainability.