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<p>Transitioning service members (TSMs) leaving military service have high risks of unemployment, homelessness, nonfatal suicide attempt (SA), and suicide death. Data from <i>n</i> = 7188 recently separated TSMs from the U.S. Army were used to update previously developed models for post-separation homelessness and SA based on data at the time of separation and to develop a new unemployment model. Predicted probabilities of suicide from a model developed elsewhere were imputed for comparison purposes. Cross-validated predictions were significant for the homelessness (AU-ROC = 0.68) and SA (AU-ROC = 0.78) models but not the unemployment model (AU-ROC = 0.60). Elevated cross-validated risk was found for the 10% of TSMs at the highest predicted risk of homelessness (SN = 26.6%), 20% for SA (SN = 60.9%), and 10% for suicide death (SN = 34.1%). 28% of TSMs were in the highest risk categories for at least one and 10% for more than one outcome. Findings regarding incomplete overlap highlight the complexities of risk targeting when multiple outcomes are of interest.</p>

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Joint models targeting U.S. Army soldiers at high-risk of post-separation unemployment, homelessness, and suicide-related behaviors

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月12日

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  • Shelby Borowski,
  • Emily R. Edwards,
  • Joseph C. Geraci,
  • Sarah M. Gildea,
  • Irving Hwang,
  • Chris J. Kennedy,
  • Howard Liu,
  • Alex Luedtke,
  • Nancy A. Sampson,
  • David M. Benedek,
  • Vincent F. Capaldi,
  • James A. Naifeh,
  • Matthew K. Nock,
  • James Wagner,
  • Murray B. Stein,
  • Robert J. Ursano,
  • Ronald C. Kessler

摘要

Transitioning service members (TSMs) leaving military service have high risks of unemployment, homelessness, nonfatal suicide attempt (SA), and suicide death. Data from n = 7188 recently separated TSMs from the U.S. Army were used to update previously developed models for post-separation homelessness and SA based on data at the time of separation and to develop a new unemployment model. Predicted probabilities of suicide from a model developed elsewhere were imputed for comparison purposes. Cross-validated predictions were significant for the homelessness (AU-ROC = 0.68) and SA (AU-ROC = 0.78) models but not the unemployment model (AU-ROC = 0.60). Elevated cross-validated risk was found for the 10% of TSMs at the highest predicted risk of homelessness (SN = 26.6%), 20% for SA (SN = 60.9%), and 10% for suicide death (SN = 34.1%). 28% of TSMs were in the highest risk categories for at least one and 10% for more than one outcome. Findings regarding incomplete overlap highlight the complexities of risk targeting when multiple outcomes are of interest.