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<p>Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and associated credit mechanisms are gaining prominence in carbon neutrality strategies, yet transaction-level evidence linking project and purchaser characteristics with market outcomes remains limited. Here, we analyzed 61 blue carbon projects and 471 certified transactions under Japan’s J-Blue Credit scheme to examine how the characteristics of projects and purchasers and their alignment shape transaction outcomes. On average, projects involved 3.2 ± 1.4 co-creators, and transactions were small in volume (2.3 ± 4.2 tCO₂) but high in unit value (~400 USD/tCO₂). Approximately 40% of transactions occurred between parties located within the same municipality. Manufacturing companies preferred local projects, whereas service companies preferred innovation-focused projects. Project appeal content, such as co-benefits, significantly influenced purchaser numbers and unit prices, both positively and negatively. These findings suggest that multi-stakeholder collaboration, project appeal strategies including co-benefits, and sector-specific demand critically shape transaction outcomes and market structure, offering insights for designing effective credit schemes and for scaling CDR markets and advancing nature-based solutions globally.</p>

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Empirical analysis of project–purchaser dynamics in Japan’s blue carbon dioxide removal credit scheme

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Tomohiro Kuwae,
  • Yuka Suzuki,
  • Masanori Furuya

摘要

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and associated credit mechanisms are gaining prominence in carbon neutrality strategies, yet transaction-level evidence linking project and purchaser characteristics with market outcomes remains limited. Here, we analyzed 61 blue carbon projects and 471 certified transactions under Japan’s J-Blue Credit scheme to examine how the characteristics of projects and purchasers and their alignment shape transaction outcomes. On average, projects involved 3.2 ± 1.4 co-creators, and transactions were small in volume (2.3 ± 4.2 tCO₂) but high in unit value (~400 USD/tCO₂). Approximately 40% of transactions occurred between parties located within the same municipality. Manufacturing companies preferred local projects, whereas service companies preferred innovation-focused projects. Project appeal content, such as co-benefits, significantly influenced purchaser numbers and unit prices, both positively and negatively. These findings suggest that multi-stakeholder collaboration, project appeal strategies including co-benefits, and sector-specific demand critically shape transaction outcomes and market structure, offering insights for designing effective credit schemes and for scaling CDR markets and advancing nature-based solutions globally.