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<p>Effective climate adaptation planning requires understanding various sources and types of uncertainty. We investigated how a serious game can improve participants’ understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing sessions, we engaged 55 university students in an adaptation pathways game simulating regional planning challenges over five decades with disruptive events. Results showed participants shifted from appreciating uncertainty as either environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants preferred flexible strategies over scenario optimization, with political disruptions generating stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive learning about uncertainty types facilitated normative learning effects, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing diverse uncertainty dimensions became less confident in controlling outcomes, favouring more flexible and resilient strategies. Our findings, with contextual limitations, indicate serious games could help stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that maintain multiple options in parallel over single-pathway sequential solutions under uncertainty.</p>

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Gaming the unknown: learning to differentiate and respond to uncertainty through a serious game

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer,
  • Bregje van der Bolt,
  • Saskia Werners,
  • Wouter Julius Smolenaars,
  • Marlies van Ree,
  • Fulco Ludwig

摘要

Effective climate adaptation planning requires understanding various sources and types of uncertainty. We investigated how a serious game can improve participants’ understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing sessions, we engaged 55 university students in an adaptation pathways game simulating regional planning challenges over five decades with disruptive events. Results showed participants shifted from appreciating uncertainty as either environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants preferred flexible strategies over scenario optimization, with political disruptions generating stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive learning about uncertainty types facilitated normative learning effects, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing diverse uncertainty dimensions became less confident in controlling outcomes, favouring more flexible and resilient strategies. Our findings, with contextual limitations, indicate serious games could help stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that maintain multiple options in parallel over single-pathway sequential solutions under uncertainty.