Scholarlink

Background <p>Despite decades of control interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, morbidity associated with <i>Onchocerca volvulus</i> infection still exerts a substantial burden of disease, arising from cutaneous, ocular and neurological manifestations.</p> Methods <p>We developed and integrated a morbidity sub-model into our previously published individual-based, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, including both reversible (severe itch, reactive skin disease (RSD)), and irreversible (skin atrophy, depigmentation, hanging groin) cutaneous sequelae, and eye disease (blindness, visual impairment). We modelled the relationship between onchocerciasis skin disease (OSD) and infection prevalence using pre-intervention data from northern Nigeria, and between onchocerciasis ocular disease (OOD) and infection intensity using data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. We simulated the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) upon OSD and OOD using data from Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.</p> Results <p>Modelled age-specific OSD and OOD prevalence at baseline align well with reported prevalence estimates across the simulated range of endemicity levels but underestimate irreversible OSD in older age groups. Under MDA, we capture trends in infection prevalence, severe itch and irreversible OSD but underestimate reductions in RSD and blindness prevalence.</p> Conclusions <p>Integrating morbidity outcomes into transmission dynamics modelling will help improve estimates of onchocerciasis disease burden and inform the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative interventions.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

查看全文
  • Matthew A. Dixon,
  • Aditya Ramani,
  • Martin Walker,
  • Jacob N. Stapley,
  • Michele E. Murdoch,
  • Ian E. Murdoch,
  • Gladys A. Ozoh,
  • Jonathan F. Mosser,
  • Maria-Gloria Basáñez

摘要

Background

Despite decades of control interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, morbidity associated with Onchocerca volvulus infection still exerts a substantial burden of disease, arising from cutaneous, ocular and neurological manifestations.

Methods

We developed and integrated a morbidity sub-model into our previously published individual-based, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, including both reversible (severe itch, reactive skin disease (RSD)), and irreversible (skin atrophy, depigmentation, hanging groin) cutaneous sequelae, and eye disease (blindness, visual impairment). We modelled the relationship between onchocerciasis skin disease (OSD) and infection prevalence using pre-intervention data from northern Nigeria, and between onchocerciasis ocular disease (OOD) and infection intensity using data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. We simulated the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) upon OSD and OOD using data from Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.

Results

Modelled age-specific OSD and OOD prevalence at baseline align well with reported prevalence estimates across the simulated range of endemicity levels but underestimate irreversible OSD in older age groups. Under MDA, we capture trends in infection prevalence, severe itch and irreversible OSD but underestimate reductions in RSD and blindness prevalence.

Conclusions

Integrating morbidity outcomes into transmission dynamics modelling will help improve estimates of onchocerciasis disease burden and inform the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative interventions.