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Background <p>In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than the corresponding month in previous years.</p> Methods <p>We conducted an extensive analysis of entomological data in Rome to investigate how the unprecedentedly high temperatures seen in 2023 affected the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the local vector <i>Aedes albopictus</i> population and the risk of autochthonous transmission of both dengue and chikungunya viruses. We applied a mathematical dynamic temperature-based model to analyse adult mosquito collections in 2023 compared to those available for 2012 and assess the consequent changes in the risk of arboviral transmission. Simulations of potential local transmission triggered by disease importation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of human and entomological surveillance for monitoring transmission risks, providing insights for future action plans</p> Results <p>Results highlight a higher abundance and longer active season of <i>Ae. albopictus</i> as well as a higher risk of local arbovirus transmission in 2023.</p> Conclusions <p>Our findings raise concern in light of the predictions for more frequent extremely warm years in Europe in the near future.</p>

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Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月23日

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  • Chiara Virgillito,
  • Eleonora Longo,
  • Carlo Maria De Marco,
  • Chiara Gentile,
  • Martina Micocci,
  • Christos Topalidis,
  • Luana Violante,
  • Federico Filipponi,
  • Piero Poletti,
  • Stefano Merler,
  • Alessandra della Torre,
  • Beniamino Caputo,
  • Mattia Manica

摘要

Background

In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than the corresponding month in previous years.

Methods

We conducted an extensive analysis of entomological data in Rome to investigate how the unprecedentedly high temperatures seen in 2023 affected the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the local vector Aedes albopictus population and the risk of autochthonous transmission of both dengue and chikungunya viruses. We applied a mathematical dynamic temperature-based model to analyse adult mosquito collections in 2023 compared to those available for 2012 and assess the consequent changes in the risk of arboviral transmission. Simulations of potential local transmission triggered by disease importation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of human and entomological surveillance for monitoring transmission risks, providing insights for future action plans

Results

Results highlight a higher abundance and longer active season of Ae. albopictus as well as a higher risk of local arbovirus transmission in 2023.

Conclusions

Our findings raise concern in light of the predictions for more frequent extremely warm years in Europe in the near future.