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<p>Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission.</p>

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Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月30日

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  • Nina H. Fefferman,
  • Michael J. Blum,
  • Lydia Bourouiba,
  • Nathaniel L. Gibson,
  • Qiang He,
  • Debra L. Miller,
  • Monica Papeș,
  • Dana K. Pasquale,
  • Connor Verheyen,
  • Sadie J. Ryan

摘要

Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission.