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<p>China’s agricultural production underpins food security for 1.4 billion people but undergoes substantial fluctuations strongly affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña. However, whether ENSO impact is symmetric between El Niño and La Niña, how long the impact lasts, and how it responds to greenhouse warming are unknown. Here, using a nonlinear econometric model, we show that both El Niño and La Niña exert negative impacts persisting for four years. We attribute 655 billion CNY to the 2015-16 El Niño and 131 billion CNY to the 2010-11 La Niña, higher in southeastern provinces. Due to the nonlinearity, agricultural production is sensitive to future ENSO changes. Under a high-emission scenario, a projected increase in ENSO amplitude likely causes an additional median loss of 39.6 trillion CNY in the 21st&#xa0;century agricultural economy, and a prospect of a far greater loss cannot be excluded.</p>

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Heterogeneous persistent ENSO impact on China’s agricultural economy in a warming climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月30日

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  • Junkai Wang,
  • Wenju Cai,
  • Yi Liu,
  • Li Zhang,
  • Shujun Li,
  • Zhuoran Li,
  • Ying Zhang

摘要

China’s agricultural production underpins food security for 1.4 billion people but undergoes substantial fluctuations strongly affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña. However, whether ENSO impact is symmetric between El Niño and La Niña, how long the impact lasts, and how it responds to greenhouse warming are unknown. Here, using a nonlinear econometric model, we show that both El Niño and La Niña exert negative impacts persisting for four years. We attribute 655 billion CNY to the 2015-16 El Niño and 131 billion CNY to the 2010-11 La Niña, higher in southeastern provinces. Due to the nonlinearity, agricultural production is sensitive to future ENSO changes. Under a high-emission scenario, a projected increase in ENSO amplitude likely causes an additional median loss of 39.6 trillion CNY in the 21st century agricultural economy, and a prospect of a far greater loss cannot be excluded.