Scholarlink

<p>Using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a case study, this article investigates the factors influencing migration following a large-scale disaster. We demonstrate that a town’s post-disaster migration is influenced by the <i>combined effect</i> of extensive initial damage and the existence of more populous neighboring towns. This paper employs multiple methods to examine these outcomes, including fieldwork across 19 Tohoku communities, regression analysis with interactive effects estimators, and synthetic control methods. Notably, neither the extent of disaster damage nor pre-existing population differences individually explain migration patterns. Instead, the triple shock transformed these conditions into potent push and pull factors, resulting in the temporary resurgence of urbanization in regional centers. Our research suggests that pre-disaster structural factors, rather than subsequent policy interventions, drive depopulation, emphasizing the critical role of disaster risk reduction. This study provides insights into the intricate connections between disasters, reconstruction, and migration behavior.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Structural factors rather than reconstruction investment drive depopulation after Japan’s 2011 disasters

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月24日

查看全文
  • Toshiaki Yoshida,
  • Daniel P. Aldrich

摘要

Using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a case study, this article investigates the factors influencing migration following a large-scale disaster. We demonstrate that a town’s post-disaster migration is influenced by the combined effect of extensive initial damage and the existence of more populous neighboring towns. This paper employs multiple methods to examine these outcomes, including fieldwork across 19 Tohoku communities, regression analysis with interactive effects estimators, and synthetic control methods. Notably, neither the extent of disaster damage nor pre-existing population differences individually explain migration patterns. Instead, the triple shock transformed these conditions into potent push and pull factors, resulting in the temporary resurgence of urbanization in regional centers. Our research suggests that pre-disaster structural factors, rather than subsequent policy interventions, drive depopulation, emphasizing the critical role of disaster risk reduction. This study provides insights into the intricate connections between disasters, reconstruction, and migration behavior.