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<p>Over 1.8 billion people worldwide face water scarcity threats, with the challenge particularly acute in densely populated and agriculture-intensive drylands. Northern China, among the world’s most water-stressed regions, faces an intensifying yet poorly understood imbalance between freshwater supply and consumptive demand. Here, we reveal a sustained decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in recent decades (2004–2022) at −9.15 ± 1.24 Gt/yr. Although climate change delivers substantial water gains (+12.44 Gt/yr), irrigation consumption (−16.16 Gt/yr) overwhelms these climate-driven water gains and dominates regional water depletion. Industrial and domestic water use contribute an additional −4.43 Gt/yr, while large-scale ecological restoration inadvertently amplifies water losses through vegetation-driven enhancement of evapotranspiration (−0.91 Gt/yr). Future projections indicate that under the intermediate and high emission scenarios, TWS will continue declining through mid-century (2041–2060), with supply-demand gaps widening by 65% and 120%, respectively. These findings reveal an anthropogenic water management crisis and highlight the urgency of systemic interventions to avoid escalating water risks.</p>

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Climate-driven gains fail to mask the anthropogenic water crisis in Northern China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Riping Gao,
  • Zhanrui Huang,
  • Pengshuai Bi,
  • Changlin Wu,
  • Jinyu Men,
  • Fangxiao Zhang,
  • Erxiao Du,
  • Enze Gao,
  • Yijia Yao,
  • Jun Zhang,
  • Jing Wang,
  • Pingli An,
  • Yupeng Jing,
  • Peiyi Zhao,
  • Zhihua Pan

摘要

Over 1.8 billion people worldwide face water scarcity threats, with the challenge particularly acute in densely populated and agriculture-intensive drylands. Northern China, among the world’s most water-stressed regions, faces an intensifying yet poorly understood imbalance between freshwater supply and consumptive demand. Here, we reveal a sustained decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in recent decades (2004–2022) at −9.15 ± 1.24 Gt/yr. Although climate change delivers substantial water gains (+12.44 Gt/yr), irrigation consumption (−16.16 Gt/yr) overwhelms these climate-driven water gains and dominates regional water depletion. Industrial and domestic water use contribute an additional −4.43 Gt/yr, while large-scale ecological restoration inadvertently amplifies water losses through vegetation-driven enhancement of evapotranspiration (−0.91 Gt/yr). Future projections indicate that under the intermediate and high emission scenarios, TWS will continue declining through mid-century (2041–2060), with supply-demand gaps widening by 65% and 120%, respectively. These findings reveal an anthropogenic water management crisis and highlight the urgency of systemic interventions to avoid escalating water risks.