Interdependence and energy uncertainty in China’s carbon- neutral enterprise system

China’s transition towards peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality is changing how low-carbon and high-carbon firms interact in financial markets. These evolving links, and their exposure to energy market uncertainty, matter for both investment decisions and climate policy design. Here we analyze stock return data for Chinese listed low-carbon and high-carbon firms using network analysis, which maps the strongest links among firms, and a statistical volatility model that captures responses to energy uncertainty over short, medium and long horizons. We find that the two groups tend to cluster separately, but became more closely connected after China introduced its carbon policy framework. Their integration varies over time and is sensitive to abrupt shocks, policy adjustments and shifts in market demand. Low-carbon firms are negatively affected by energy uncertainty in the short and medium term, whereas high-carbon firms respond positively across all three horizons.