Robust reduction and nonlinear sensitivity of Maritime Continent mesoscale convection to distinct El Niño flavors

Organized mesoscale convective systems are major drivers of rainfall and extreme precipitation across the Maritime Continent, yet their responses to different El Niño types remain poorly understood. Here we combine long-term satellite observations with high-resolution climate simulations that realistically capture tropical mesoscale convective systems to investigate how distinct El Niño flavors influence these systems. We find a robust reduction in mesoscale convective systems occurrence over the Maritime Continent irrespective of El Niño types, driven by enhanced subsidence associated with an eastward-displaced Walker circulation. However, the magnitude of this reduction differs substantially with both the location and intensity of El Niño warming because mesoscale convective systems respond nonlinearly to local sea surface temperature. These changes produce notable shifts in both mean and extreme precipitation. Our results provide valuable benchmarks for improving the representation of convection–circulation interactions in climate models and offer potential to enhance operational prediction of high-impact tropical convection.