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<p>Seismic hazard management in geo-energy development demands real-time assessment of fault instability. However, real-time monitoring of pore pressure change during fluid injection remains challenging. Here, we present a high-resolution ( ~150 m and ~2 days), non-tomographic strategy that tracks the seismic velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) as a proxy for pore pressure coevolution with induced seismicity clusters. Applying this strategy to the southern Sichuan Basin, China, we observe a distinct ~4% elevation in in-situ Vp/Vs that precedes M &gt; 3 hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes by several days of seismic quiescence. This quiescence reveals a prolonged diffusion phase, during which injected fluids gradually condition rupture zones by elevating pore pressure to critical levels. Such a preparation phase provides a valuable time window for operational intervention, offering more precise timing for hazard mitigation than traditional traffic-light protocols. Our results suggest a viable strategy for near-real-time seismic hazard assessment in diverse fluid-rich environments susceptible to induced or natural earthquakes.</p><p></p>

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Elevated in-situ Vp/Vs preceding hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月30日

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  • Jian Xu,
  • Yajing Liu,
  • Junlun Li,
  • Marco P. Roth,
  • Rebecca M. Harrington,
  • Yicheng He

摘要

Seismic hazard management in geo-energy development demands real-time assessment of fault instability. However, real-time monitoring of pore pressure change during fluid injection remains challenging. Here, we present a high-resolution ( ~150 m and ~2 days), non-tomographic strategy that tracks the seismic velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) as a proxy for pore pressure coevolution with induced seismicity clusters. Applying this strategy to the southern Sichuan Basin, China, we observe a distinct ~4% elevation in in-situ Vp/Vs that precedes M > 3 hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes by several days of seismic quiescence. This quiescence reveals a prolonged diffusion phase, during which injected fluids gradually condition rupture zones by elevating pore pressure to critical levels. Such a preparation phase provides a valuable time window for operational intervention, offering more precise timing for hazard mitigation than traditional traffic-light protocols. Our results suggest a viable strategy for near-real-time seismic hazard assessment in diverse fluid-rich environments susceptible to induced or natural earthquakes.