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<p>Bioenergy crops present a promising solution for climate mitigation and clean energy, yet national-scale deployment is constrained by land availability, crop suitability, water resources, carbon capture and storage, and competing environmental priorities. Here, we combine satellite-based land-cover data with spatially-explicit yield model to assess the leverages, constraints and land–energy–carbon nexus of bioenergy deployment on 36 million hectares marginal croplands in China. This strategy could supply 1.88–2.09 EJ yr⁻¹ biofuel and deliver 192–298 million tonnes CO₂ yr⁻¹ net carbon removal—up to 76% over natural regrowth alone—with minimal risks to water scarcity or biodiversity. It could offset 8–12% of agri-food emissions and meet 15–17% of transport-energy demand. Nearly half of marginal cropland overlaps with biodiversity-priority areas, posing critical constraints on deployment, where natural regrowth serves as a preferable alternative. Optimizing crop selection, and carbon capture and storage consideration are more critical for enhancing outcomes than irrigation alone.</p>

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Carbon‑removal opportunities and constraints of bioenergy crops on marginal croplands in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Ting Hua,
  • Yang Yu,
  • Mayank Krishna,
  • Han Wang,
  • Hui Wu,
  • Zhiqiang Zhang,
  • Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo

摘要

Bioenergy crops present a promising solution for climate mitigation and clean energy, yet national-scale deployment is constrained by land availability, crop suitability, water resources, carbon capture and storage, and competing environmental priorities. Here, we combine satellite-based land-cover data with spatially-explicit yield model to assess the leverages, constraints and land–energy–carbon nexus of bioenergy deployment on 36 million hectares marginal croplands in China. This strategy could supply 1.88–2.09 EJ yr⁻¹ biofuel and deliver 192–298 million tonnes CO₂ yr⁻¹ net carbon removal—up to 76% over natural regrowth alone—with minimal risks to water scarcity or biodiversity. It could offset 8–12% of agri-food emissions and meet 15–17% of transport-energy demand. Nearly half of marginal cropland overlaps with biodiversity-priority areas, posing critical constraints on deployment, where natural regrowth serves as a preferable alternative. Optimizing crop selection, and carbon capture and storage consideration are more critical for enhancing outcomes than irrigation alone.