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<p>African droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, but whether their underlying behavior is also changing remains unclear. Here, we combine observational climate data from the Climatic Research Unit with a 16-member climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to examine drought dynamics across four African regions. Using drought-event characteristics, persistence analysis, statistical clustering and compound-risk assessment, we show that warming is associated with a broad reorganization of drought behavior across the continent. Historical records indicate increasing drought frequency, duration, and severity, largely linked to rising atmospheric evaporative demand. Future projections under intermediate and high greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios indicate more frequent long-lasting and high-severity drought conditions, stronger coupling among drought characteristics, and substantial increases in compound risk. These shifts suggest reduced hydroclimatic stability and increasing risks to water resources, food systems and ecosystems across Africa.</p>

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Emergent reorganization and increased persistence of meteorological drought across Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月24日

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  • Akinwale T. Ogunrinde,
  • Paul Adigun,
  • Koji Diaraku,
  • Xian Xue,
  • Ebiendele Precious,
  • Ermias Sisay Brhane

摘要

African droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, but whether their underlying behavior is also changing remains unclear. Here, we combine observational climate data from the Climatic Research Unit with a 16-member climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to examine drought dynamics across four African regions. Using drought-event characteristics, persistence analysis, statistical clustering and compound-risk assessment, we show that warming is associated with a broad reorganization of drought behavior across the continent. Historical records indicate increasing drought frequency, duration, and severity, largely linked to rising atmospheric evaporative demand. Future projections under intermediate and high greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios indicate more frequent long-lasting and high-severity drought conditions, stronger coupling among drought characteristics, and substantial increases in compound risk. These shifts suggest reduced hydroclimatic stability and increasing risks to water resources, food systems and ecosystems across Africa.