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<p>Algal blooms are becoming more frequent and intense in lakes worldwide, but how bloom intensity and timing co-vary at the global scale is unclear. Here we analyze two decades of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite observations for 4085 lakes ( &gt; 20 square kilometres) to compare changes in intensity (fractional floating algal cover) and timing (start and end dates) of surface algal bloom. We find that intensity and timing often change independently: about 71% of lakes show increasing intensity, mainly associated with higher population density and agricultural pressure, whereas temperature and wind better explain shifts in bloom timing, especially in cold regions. Under a medium-emission scenario, tropical lakes show rapid intensification with modest timing shifts, while cold-region lakes exhibit regionally contrasting timing changes. This decoupling may alter lake food webs and carbon cycling, underscoring the need for region-specific management strategies under climate change.</p>

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Anthropogenic and climatic factors regulate algal bloom intensity and timing in global lakes under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Kun Xue,
  • Ronghua Ma,
  • Minqi Hu,
  • Yao Li

摘要

Algal blooms are becoming more frequent and intense in lakes worldwide, but how bloom intensity and timing co-vary at the global scale is unclear. Here we analyze two decades of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite observations for 4085 lakes ( > 20 square kilometres) to compare changes in intensity (fractional floating algal cover) and timing (start and end dates) of surface algal bloom. We find that intensity and timing often change independently: about 71% of lakes show increasing intensity, mainly associated with higher population density and agricultural pressure, whereas temperature and wind better explain shifts in bloom timing, especially in cold regions. Under a medium-emission scenario, tropical lakes show rapid intensification with modest timing shifts, while cold-region lakes exhibit regionally contrasting timing changes. This decoupling may alter lake food webs and carbon cycling, underscoring the need for region-specific management strategies under climate change.