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<p>Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves occur year-round but are shaped by seasonally-varying dynamics including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific atmosphere-ocean interactions. Using a data-driven cyclostationary linear inverse model constructed from 64 years of monthly sea surface temperature and height reanalyses, we demonstrate that longer-lived marine heatwaves preferentially begin in winter, when ENSO teleconnections and oceanic memory most strongly influence event amplification. Springtime subsurface storage and subsequent fall/winter reemergence of thermal anomalies drive extended persistence through wintertime re-intensification. While intense events can also begin in summer, without strong ENSO and reemergence dynamics they rarely persist. The relative importance of tropical forcing versus North Pacific upper-ocean dynamics varies by region and season, producing distinct marine heatwave “flavors” linked to different ENSO types or to internal North Pacific processes alone. These findings reveal how seasonal phase-locking drives marine heatwave evolution, with implications for predictability and marine ecosystem impacts.</p>

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Persistent Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves are sensitive to the seasonality of tropical and North Pacific dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Tongtong Xu,
  • Matthew Newman,
  • Sang-Ik Shin,
  • Antonietta Capotondi,
  • Daniel J. Vimont,
  • Michael A. Alexander,
  • Emanuele Di Lorenzo

摘要

Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves occur year-round but are shaped by seasonally-varying dynamics including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific atmosphere-ocean interactions. Using a data-driven cyclostationary linear inverse model constructed from 64 years of monthly sea surface temperature and height reanalyses, we demonstrate that longer-lived marine heatwaves preferentially begin in winter, when ENSO teleconnections and oceanic memory most strongly influence event amplification. Springtime subsurface storage and subsequent fall/winter reemergence of thermal anomalies drive extended persistence through wintertime re-intensification. While intense events can also begin in summer, without strong ENSO and reemergence dynamics they rarely persist. The relative importance of tropical forcing versus North Pacific upper-ocean dynamics varies by region and season, producing distinct marine heatwave “flavors” linked to different ENSO types or to internal North Pacific processes alone. These findings reveal how seasonal phase-locking drives marine heatwave evolution, with implications for predictability and marine ecosystem impacts.