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<p>The Loess Plateau is a key region for national dual-carbon goals in China, yet it is aging, and climatic sensitivity increasingly constrains long-term carbon sink potential in its plantation forests. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework integrating random forest classification, cluster analysis, LandTrendr-based age reconstruction, and a semi-empirical model to quantify plantation carbon dynamics. Plantations account for 59.74% of forest cover, with deciduous types dominating (71.46%) and an age structure heavily skewed toward maturity (91.6% &gt;15 years). Ages of peak net ecosystem productivity decline systematically along precipitation gradients, occurring at 18 (deciduous) and 13 (evergreen) years under low rainfall (&lt;300 millimeters), and exceeding 20 years in wetter zones (&gt;400 millimeters). Forward projections show that, without adaptive management, plantation carbon sinks could decline by 4.83 teragrams of carbon by 2060. These findings underscore the urgency of climate-informed forest strategies to sustain and enhance carbon sequestration across aging plantations on the Loess Plateau.</p>

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Peak carbon sequestration rate reached on the Loess Plateau plantations

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

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  • Xingyu Jia,
  • Wenyan Ge,
  • Jianqiao Han,
  • Fei Wang,
  • Linhai Jing,
  • Daojun Zhang,
  • Pingping Zhu

摘要

The Loess Plateau is a key region for national dual-carbon goals in China, yet it is aging, and climatic sensitivity increasingly constrains long-term carbon sink potential in its plantation forests. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework integrating random forest classification, cluster analysis, LandTrendr-based age reconstruction, and a semi-empirical model to quantify plantation carbon dynamics. Plantations account for 59.74% of forest cover, with deciduous types dominating (71.46%) and an age structure heavily skewed toward maturity (91.6% >15 years). Ages of peak net ecosystem productivity decline systematically along precipitation gradients, occurring at 18 (deciduous) and 13 (evergreen) years under low rainfall (<300 millimeters), and exceeding 20 years in wetter zones (>400 millimeters). Forward projections show that, without adaptive management, plantation carbon sinks could decline by 4.83 teragrams of carbon by 2060. These findings underscore the urgency of climate-informed forest strategies to sustain and enhance carbon sequestration across aging plantations on the Loess Plateau.