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<p>Agricultural ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>) emissions adversely affect air quality, threatening ecosystems and human health. The extent to which global NH<sub>3</sub> emissions respond to a warmer climate and the effects of changing agricultural management practices remain poorly quantified. Here, we show that global warming drives NH<sub>3</sub> emission increases of 5-22% across plausible ranges of climate projections in 2091-2100, with &gt; 10% regional increase in NH<sub>3</sub> emissions per °C warming. A package of six linked measures could reduce present global agricultural NH<sub>3</sub> emissions by 31% but only by 16-28% globally for contrasting climate scenarios (2091-2100), with up to 97% decrease in the effectiveness of measures at a continental scale. Our study underscores the need to consider temperature dependence when evaluating the efficacy of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions reduction policies under a changing climate, and highlights that achieving ambitious NH<sub>3</sub> emission abatement targets will require enhanced efforts to mitigate climate change.</p>

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Global warming increases ammonia emissions and reduces the efficacy of mitigation actions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月19日

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  • Jize Jiang,
  • David S. Stevenson,
  • Aimable Uwizeye,
  • Flavia A. M. Casu,
  • Giuseppe Tempio,
  • Alessandra Falcucci,
  • Mark A. Sutton

摘要

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions adversely affect air quality, threatening ecosystems and human health. The extent to which global NH3 emissions respond to a warmer climate and the effects of changing agricultural management practices remain poorly quantified. Here, we show that global warming drives NH3 emission increases of 5-22% across plausible ranges of climate projections in 2091-2100, with > 10% regional increase in NH3 emissions per °C warming. A package of six linked measures could reduce present global agricultural NH3 emissions by 31% but only by 16-28% globally for contrasting climate scenarios (2091-2100), with up to 97% decrease in the effectiveness of measures at a continental scale. Our study underscores the need to consider temperature dependence when evaluating the efficacy of NH3 emissions reduction policies under a changing climate, and highlights that achieving ambitious NH3 emission abatement targets will require enhanced efforts to mitigate climate change.