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<p>Whether drought-induced vegetation loss risk and ecosystem resilience in arid regions evolve synergistically or trade off remains unclear. Here, we project that medium-to-high risk areas in global drylands will expand by 9.9%–15.3% in the future. By developing a multi-model vegetation resilience trajectory diagnostic framework, we found that 57.4% of vegetated areas experienced declining resilience historically. In a low-emissions pathway, the fraction with declining resilience drops from 51.2% during 2015–2060 to 42.6% during 2061–2100, but rises to 64.8 ± 2.0% under medium- and high-emissions pathways. Rising risk is mainly driven by intensified atmospheric drought, while declining resilience results from weakened carbon dioxide fertilization and aggravated aridity. The centroids of high-risk and low-resilience regions will shift toward the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau in Asia and southward in South America; ecologically sensitive zones with high risk and decreasing resilience (32.0–50.1% of drylands) warrant precise prevention and management.</p>

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Intensifying drought risk weakens vegetation resilience in global drylands

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Zijie Kong,
  • Hongbo Ling,
  • Mingjiang Deng,
  • Aihua Long,
  • Bin Guo,
  • Shengzhi Huang,
  • Guangpeng Zhang

摘要

Whether drought-induced vegetation loss risk and ecosystem resilience in arid regions evolve synergistically or trade off remains unclear. Here, we project that medium-to-high risk areas in global drylands will expand by 9.9%–15.3% in the future. By developing a multi-model vegetation resilience trajectory diagnostic framework, we found that 57.4% of vegetated areas experienced declining resilience historically. In a low-emissions pathway, the fraction with declining resilience drops from 51.2% during 2015–2060 to 42.6% during 2061–2100, but rises to 64.8 ± 2.0% under medium- and high-emissions pathways. Rising risk is mainly driven by intensified atmospheric drought, while declining resilience results from weakened carbon dioxide fertilization and aggravated aridity. The centroids of high-risk and low-resilience regions will shift toward the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau in Asia and southward in South America; ecologically sensitive zones with high risk and decreasing resilience (32.0–50.1% of drylands) warrant precise prevention and management.