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<p>Understanding near-trench interseismic deformation at subduction zones is crucial for assessing the hazards of giant earthquakes, especially trench-breaking tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, interseismic locking preceding such trench-breaking tsunamigenic events remain poorly constrained due to the limited sensitivity of onshore geodetic observations. Here, we present seafloor geodetic observations along the southwestern Kuril trench, a region with the potential for large coseismic ruptures reaching the trench, as inferred from historical tsunami records. Our results show high slip-deficit rates near the trench during 2019–2024 and suggest that a slip deficit of 20.5–30.0 m may have accumulated over the past ~400 years, considering the long-term low seismic activity in this region. These findings imply future recurrence of a megathrust earthquake (M<sub>w</sub> ~8.8) with rupture reaching the Kuril trench. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of seafloor geodetic monitoring for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment at subduction zones.</p>

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Seafloor geodetic evidence of slip deficit near the southwestern Kuril Trench

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月14日

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  • Fumiaki Tomita,
  • Yusaku Ohta,
  • Motoyuki Kido,
  • Mako Ohzono,
  • Hiroaki Takahashi,
  • Ryota Hino,
  • Takeshi Iinuma

摘要

Understanding near-trench interseismic deformation at subduction zones is crucial for assessing the hazards of giant earthquakes, especially trench-breaking tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, interseismic locking preceding such trench-breaking tsunamigenic events remain poorly constrained due to the limited sensitivity of onshore geodetic observations. Here, we present seafloor geodetic observations along the southwestern Kuril trench, a region with the potential for large coseismic ruptures reaching the trench, as inferred from historical tsunami records. Our results show high slip-deficit rates near the trench during 2019–2024 and suggest that a slip deficit of 20.5–30.0 m may have accumulated over the past ~400 years, considering the long-term low seismic activity in this region. These findings imply future recurrence of a megathrust earthquake (Mw ~8.8) with rupture reaching the Kuril trench. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of seafloor geodetic monitoring for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment at subduction zones.