<p>Since 2005, the Campi Flegrei nested caldera volcano, located about 10 km west of Naples, Italy, has experienced accelerating uplift accompanied by increased seismicity, raising concerns in this densely populated area. This ongoing uplift is part of a millennium-long history of inflation-deflation cycles, in which seismicity correlates with uplift phases, albeit nonlinearly. Here, we show that the combination of stress shadowing and loading with frictional fault behavior reproduces the observed long-term seismicity trend. However, in the short term, earthquake clustering occurs, which we demonstrate is at least partly related to earthquake interactions and can be effectively modeled by overlapping aftershock sequences. Merging the long- and short-term approaches yields a combined model that effectively replicates the observed seismicity patterns. A pseudo-prospective test shows that the model can also provide probabilistic short-term forecasts of earthquake rates and maximum magnitudes on weekly to monthly time horizons.</p>