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<p>The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga volcano (20<sup>∘</sup>S) injected 150 Tg of water vapour into the middle atmosphere, leading to an increase in the stratospheric water burden of 10%, unprecedented in the observational record. In the first two years post eruption the stratospheric burden hardly changed, leaving the residence time of volcanically injected water vapour, a key control on its climate impact, uncertain. Here, using satellite observations, we show a substantial decline from 2024 to early 2025, the largest drop since the eruption. Comparison with 3-D numerical model simulations shows that the long-term removal of the Hunga water has now entered a new phase, with stratosphere-troposphere exchange playing an increasingly important role, exceeding Antarctic dehydration in 2024. We estimate that the additional stratospheric water vapour is now decaying steadily with an e-folding time of 3 years and will reach the observed pre-Hunga range of variability around 2030.</p>

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Residence time of Hunga stratospheric water vapour perturbation quantified at 9 years

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月24日

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  • Xin Zhou,
  • Quanliang Chen,
  • Wuhu Feng,
  • Saffron Heddell,
  • Sandip S. Dhomse,
  • Graham Mann,
  • Hugh C. Pumphrey,
  • Luis Millán,
  • Michelle L. Santee,
  • Martyn P. Chipperfield

摘要

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga volcano (20∘S) injected 150 Tg of water vapour into the middle atmosphere, leading to an increase in the stratospheric water burden of 10%, unprecedented in the observational record. In the first two years post eruption the stratospheric burden hardly changed, leaving the residence time of volcanically injected water vapour, a key control on its climate impact, uncertain. Here, using satellite observations, we show a substantial decline from 2024 to early 2025, the largest drop since the eruption. Comparison with 3-D numerical model simulations shows that the long-term removal of the Hunga water has now entered a new phase, with stratosphere-troposphere exchange playing an increasingly important role, exceeding Antarctic dehydration in 2024. We estimate that the additional stratospheric water vapour is now decaying steadily with an e-folding time of 3 years and will reach the observed pre-Hunga range of variability around 2030.