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<p>In the late twentieth century, nighttime land surface temperatures are observed to rise faster than daytime temperatures, resulting in high diurnal temperature ranges and considerable diurnal asymmetric warming. Nevertheless, the projected changes in diurnal temperature ranges under global warming remain with large uncertainties across statistical multi-model simulations. Here, we identify an emergent relationship between historical diurnal temperature ranges variability and future projections on both global and regional scales. By leveraging this spatially heterogeneous relationship, we present a framework to refine regional projections, reducing model uncertainties by 15–68% across the 27 IPCC AR6 reference regions. Our findings suggest a sustained influence of external forcing on diurnal temperature ranges from past to future, driven primarily by related widespread reductions in cloud cover, rather than internal variability. This study provides valuable insights into constraining regional extreme responses to a warming climate, laying the groundwork for informed regional climate policy decisions.</p>

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Historical diurnal temperature range trends constrain future climate projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月13日

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  • Anqi Liu,
  • Daokai Xue,
  • Ben Yang,
  • Danqing Huang

摘要

In the late twentieth century, nighttime land surface temperatures are observed to rise faster than daytime temperatures, resulting in high diurnal temperature ranges and considerable diurnal asymmetric warming. Nevertheless, the projected changes in diurnal temperature ranges under global warming remain with large uncertainties across statistical multi-model simulations. Here, we identify an emergent relationship between historical diurnal temperature ranges variability and future projections on both global and regional scales. By leveraging this spatially heterogeneous relationship, we present a framework to refine regional projections, reducing model uncertainties by 15–68% across the 27 IPCC AR6 reference regions. Our findings suggest a sustained influence of external forcing on diurnal temperature ranges from past to future, driven primarily by related widespread reductions in cloud cover, rather than internal variability. This study provides valuable insights into constraining regional extreme responses to a warming climate, laying the groundwork for informed regional climate policy decisions.