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<p>Compound floods resulting from the concurrence of river overflow and elevated sea levels are becoming increasingly unpredictable as climate extremes intensify. However, most flood risk assessments still fail to account for the uncertainty in their co-occurrence. Here, we quantify potential coastal compound flood risk at 0.1<sup>∘</sup> resolution by integrating flood hazard, population exposure, and empirical vulnerability. Specifically, we introduce a compound flood metric, which aggregates riverine and oceanic flood volumes across multiple return periods under a physically plausible co-occurrence assumption. We further derive an empirical vulnerability function based on the ratio between observed and maximum potential flood hazard. The results show that Asia exhibites the highest 35.22% internal high-risk grids, followed by Africa (20.21%), Europe (17.02%), South America (9.89%), and North America (2.31%), with river deltas and low-lying coasts emerging as global&#xa0;riskhotspots. Our study offers a conservative compound flood risk assessment under deep uncertainty, supporting more robust investment decisions.</p>

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Global mapping of potential coastal compound flood risk at 0.1∘ resolution

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月8日

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  • Jiaqi Zhang,
  • Matteo Convertino

摘要

Compound floods resulting from the concurrence of river overflow and elevated sea levels are becoming increasingly unpredictable as climate extremes intensify. However, most flood risk assessments still fail to account for the uncertainty in their co-occurrence. Here, we quantify potential coastal compound flood risk at 0.1∘ resolution by integrating flood hazard, population exposure, and empirical vulnerability. Specifically, we introduce a compound flood metric, which aggregates riverine and oceanic flood volumes across multiple return periods under a physically plausible co-occurrence assumption. We further derive an empirical vulnerability function based on the ratio between observed and maximum potential flood hazard. The results show that Asia exhibites the highest 35.22% internal high-risk grids, followed by Africa (20.21%), Europe (17.02%), South America (9.89%), and North America (2.31%), with river deltas and low-lying coasts emerging as global riskhotspots. Our study offers a conservative compound flood risk assessment under deep uncertainty, supporting more robust investment decisions.