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<p>Abrupt changes at decadal time scale are recurrent events in the modern climate system. Using multiple trend-change detection methods, here we report such an abrupt trend change in the early 2010s in the altimetry-based global mean sea level record, as well as in its thermal and mass components. Abrupt trend change in the mass component is mostly due to terrestrial water storage and to a lesser extent to ice sheet melting. The linear rate of rise of the global mean sea level increases abruptly from 2.9 ± 0.22 mm yr<sup>−1</sup> over 1993–2011 to 4.1 ± 0.25 mm yr<sup>−1</sup> over 2012–2024. Abrupt trend changes in numerous climate parameters have also been reported in the early 2010s, suggesting a more global phenomenon. Internal climate variability is likely the main driver of the early 2010s sharp change observed in sea level and components, although one cannot totally exclude any additional contribution from increased radiative forcing.</p>

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Abrupt trend change in global mean sea level and its components in the early 2010s

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月12日

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  • Lancelot Leclercq,
  • Julius Oelsmann,
  • Anny Cazenave,
  • Marcello Passaro,
  • Svetlana Jevrejeva,
  • Sarah Connors,
  • Jean-François Legeais,
  • Florence Birol,
  • Rodrigo Abarca-del-Rio

摘要

Abrupt changes at decadal time scale are recurrent events in the modern climate system. Using multiple trend-change detection methods, here we report such an abrupt trend change in the early 2010s in the altimetry-based global mean sea level record, as well as in its thermal and mass components. Abrupt trend change in the mass component is mostly due to terrestrial water storage and to a lesser extent to ice sheet melting. The linear rate of rise of the global mean sea level increases abruptly from 2.9 ± 0.22 mm yr−1 over 1993–2011 to 4.1 ± 0.25 mm yr−1 over 2012–2024. Abrupt trend changes in numerous climate parameters have also been reported in the early 2010s, suggesting a more global phenomenon. Internal climate variability is likely the main driver of the early 2010s sharp change observed in sea level and components, although one cannot totally exclude any additional contribution from increased radiative forcing.