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<p>The northwestern Pacific has exhibited an anomalously rapid warming since 2011, causing significant climate disasters and marine ecosystem destruction. Yet the drivers of this accelerated warming remain insufficiently understood. Here we find that anthropogenic aerosol mitigation constitutes the principal driver of this phenomenon. During 2011 − 2022, aerosol reduction induces a 2.3 ± 0.91% decline in cloud cover over the downwind northwestern Pacific region, generating a 6.1 ± 2.4 W m<sup>−</sup>² enhancement in surface shortwave radiation that explains 72 ± 28% of the observed sea surface temperature rise. Aerosol-driven ocean warming manifests a five-year lag post-emission reductions, governed by threshold-triggered nonlinear aerosol-cloud interaction, where cloud decrease occurs only below critical aerosol thresholds. Coupled climate model simulations isolate a 0.25  ±  0.14 °C/decade warming signal attributable to aerosol reductions, which accounts for 66 ± 51% of the simulated warming in 2011 − 2022. These findings provide crucial implications for future climate policy formulation.</p>

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Aerosol emission reductions cause post-2011 rapid warming in the northwestern Pacific

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月25日

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  • Nan Yang,
  • Yan Xia,
  • Fei Xie,
  • Chuanfeng Zhao,
  • Tianyi Fan,
  • Yannian Zhu

摘要

The northwestern Pacific has exhibited an anomalously rapid warming since 2011, causing significant climate disasters and marine ecosystem destruction. Yet the drivers of this accelerated warming remain insufficiently understood. Here we find that anthropogenic aerosol mitigation constitutes the principal driver of this phenomenon. During 2011 − 2022, aerosol reduction induces a 2.3 ± 0.91% decline in cloud cover over the downwind northwestern Pacific region, generating a 6.1 ± 2.4 W m−² enhancement in surface shortwave radiation that explains 72 ± 28% of the observed sea surface temperature rise. Aerosol-driven ocean warming manifests a five-year lag post-emission reductions, governed by threshold-triggered nonlinear aerosol-cloud interaction, where cloud decrease occurs only below critical aerosol thresholds. Coupled climate model simulations isolate a 0.25  ±  0.14 °C/decade warming signal attributable to aerosol reductions, which accounts for 66 ± 51% of the simulated warming in 2011 − 2022. These findings provide crucial implications for future climate policy formulation.