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<p>The coupling mechanisms and cascading effects among water, carbon, and ecosystem structure at the basin scale remain insufficiently understood. Here we take the perspective of ecosystem dynamic change, integrating the InVEST ecosystem process model and machine learning techniques, and propose a water<b>-</b>carbon<b>-</b>structure-function nexus analysis framework. We found that the overall ecosystem dynamism ranged from 2.3% to 5.3% across the basin. Spatial structural differentiation among the four major ecosystem types intensified. At the grid level, water-carbon showed predominantly synergistic behavior. The relatively low average water-carbon values in monsoon zones were key to limiting ecosystem gains. The structural thresholds constraining water-carbon interactions declined further in 2010 and 2022. Additionally, the water-carbon-structure-function nexus exhibits saddle-shaped, platform-shaped, and peak-shaped patterns spatially under water supply conditions. Once water utilization and structural characteristics reach their corresponding thresholds, the ecosystem’s productive function enters a steady state and no longer fluctuates significantly with changes in a single variable.</p><p></p>

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Water-carbon-structure cascade effect nonlinearly impacts ecosystem production functions in monsoon basins

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月31日

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  • Lintong Huang,
  • Yaxuan Dai,
  • Siyuan Cheng,
  • Wenxian Guo,
  • Hongxiang Wang

摘要

The coupling mechanisms and cascading effects among water, carbon, and ecosystem structure at the basin scale remain insufficiently understood. Here we take the perspective of ecosystem dynamic change, integrating the InVEST ecosystem process model and machine learning techniques, and propose a water-carbon-structure-function nexus analysis framework. We found that the overall ecosystem dynamism ranged from 2.3% to 5.3% across the basin. Spatial structural differentiation among the four major ecosystem types intensified. At the grid level, water-carbon showed predominantly synergistic behavior. The relatively low average water-carbon values in monsoon zones were key to limiting ecosystem gains. The structural thresholds constraining water-carbon interactions declined further in 2010 and 2022. Additionally, the water-carbon-structure-function nexus exhibits saddle-shaped, platform-shaped, and peak-shaped patterns spatially under water supply conditions. Once water utilization and structural characteristics reach their corresponding thresholds, the ecosystem’s productive function enters a steady state and no longer fluctuates significantly with changes in a single variable.