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<p>The importance of sea-ice loss on the Arctic amplification of near-surface warming remains contentious, as Arctic amplification emerges even in model experiments with disabled surface-albedo feedback. Here we show that the characteristics and underlying dynamics of Arctic amplification may change greatly in a future ice-free climate using a series of climate model experiments. Our analysis indicates that although Arctic amplification continues over the 22<sup>nd</sup> century, it weakens markedly with a less distinct seasonality in a future ice-free climate. These changes are found to occur because the strength and seasonality of Arctic amplification in the current climate are attributed mainly to a tight coupling between cold-season lapse-rate feedback and sunlit-season surface-albedo feedback. The substantial differences in the characteristics of simulated Arctic amplification between the current and future ice-free climate therefore suggest that the presence of Arctic sea ice is an essential component of the current Arctic amplification regime.</p>

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The role of sea ice in present and future Arctic amplification

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Eui-Seok Chung,
  • Seong-Joong Kim,
  • Kyung-Ja Ha,
  • Malte F. Stuecker,
  • Sun-Seon Lee,
  • Joo-Hong Kim,
  • Sang-Yoon Jun,
  • Tamás Bódai

摘要

The importance of sea-ice loss on the Arctic amplification of near-surface warming remains contentious, as Arctic amplification emerges even in model experiments with disabled surface-albedo feedback. Here we show that the characteristics and underlying dynamics of Arctic amplification may change greatly in a future ice-free climate using a series of climate model experiments. Our analysis indicates that although Arctic amplification continues over the 22nd century, it weakens markedly with a less distinct seasonality in a future ice-free climate. These changes are found to occur because the strength and seasonality of Arctic amplification in the current climate are attributed mainly to a tight coupling between cold-season lapse-rate feedback and sunlit-season surface-albedo feedback. The substantial differences in the characteristics of simulated Arctic amplification between the current and future ice-free climate therefore suggest that the presence of Arctic sea ice is an essential component of the current Arctic amplification regime.