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<p>China’s booming truck industry has led to a rapid rise in end-of-life trucks, yet only one-third are formally recycled. Here we estimate the resource, economic, and decarbonization potential of end-of-life trucks in China through 2050 using a dynamic population balance model. Our analysis shows the annual amount of end-of-life trucks will increase nine-fold to 53 million metric tons by 2050. The economic benefit from these materials is projected to reach 44 billion United States dollars, adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, urban mining of aluminum, iron, and copper can reduce carbon emissions by up to 58 million metric tons in 2050 compared to primary production. These findings provide quantitative support for urban mining policies to advance decarbonization, particularly in economies with fossil fuel-dominated power grids.</p>

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Resource, economic, and carbon benefits of end-of-life trucks’ urban mining in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月10日

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  • Guochang Xu,
  • Xin Xiong,
  • Wei Liu,
  • Shuo Yang,
  • Youping Miao,
  • Fei Liu,
  • Heping Liu,
  • Yikun Feng,
  • Xiaoming Liang,
  • Ziyan He,
  • Kenichi Nakajima

摘要

China’s booming truck industry has led to a rapid rise in end-of-life trucks, yet only one-third are formally recycled. Here we estimate the resource, economic, and decarbonization potential of end-of-life trucks in China through 2050 using a dynamic population balance model. Our analysis shows the annual amount of end-of-life trucks will increase nine-fold to 53 million metric tons by 2050. The economic benefit from these materials is projected to reach 44 billion United States dollars, adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, urban mining of aluminum, iron, and copper can reduce carbon emissions by up to 58 million metric tons in 2050 compared to primary production. These findings provide quantitative support for urban mining policies to advance decarbonization, particularly in economies with fossil fuel-dominated power grids.