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<p>Rainfall is the main trigger for debris flows in torrent catchments. A systematic analysis of the critical rainfall for debris-flow initiation in Austria is lacking. This study quantifies and compares rainfall events that historically triggered debris flows and fluvial floods in Austria and assesses the expected impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial extent of such events. We derive critical rainfall conditions using hourly rainfall estimates based on radar-rain gauge data for more than 3600 torrent events between 2003 and 2022. Past and future return periods are estimated based on an ensemble of regional climate projections covering three emission scenarios until 2100. We find that the regional variations of the critical rainfall patterns are greater than the differences between the types of processes. A general dependence of triggering rainfall on the antecedent rainfall cannot be confirmed. In a warming climate, both the probability of occurrence and the affected area in Austria are projected to increase for both process types and across all emission scenarios. However, these changes are unevenly distributed throughout Austria. The results indicate that regional-scale predictions can improve mountain risk management in a changing climate, while risk management for individual torrents will benefit from process-based understanding.</p>

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Climate induced increase in frequency and area affected by critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows in Austria

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月7日

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  • Roland Kaitna,
  • Matthias Schlögl,
  • Benedikt Becsi,
  • Harald Rieder,
  • Herbert Formayer

摘要

Rainfall is the main trigger for debris flows in torrent catchments. A systematic analysis of the critical rainfall for debris-flow initiation in Austria is lacking. This study quantifies and compares rainfall events that historically triggered debris flows and fluvial floods in Austria and assesses the expected impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial extent of such events. We derive critical rainfall conditions using hourly rainfall estimates based on radar-rain gauge data for more than 3600 torrent events between 2003 and 2022. Past and future return periods are estimated based on an ensemble of regional climate projections covering three emission scenarios until 2100. We find that the regional variations of the critical rainfall patterns are greater than the differences between the types of processes. A general dependence of triggering rainfall on the antecedent rainfall cannot be confirmed. In a warming climate, both the probability of occurrence and the affected area in Austria are projected to increase for both process types and across all emission scenarios. However, these changes are unevenly distributed throughout Austria. The results indicate that regional-scale predictions can improve mountain risk management in a changing climate, while risk management for individual torrents will benefit from process-based understanding.