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<p>Maritime activity in the Arctic is increasing, and climate change projections suggest that commercial vessels may soon have seasonal access to high-latitude waters. Accurate assessments of Arctic marine access are essential, yet the ability of climate models to reproduce historical navigability remains underassessed. Here, we show that the multi-model mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) underestimates overall Arctic navigability, despite capturing historical changes in summer navigable areas. Since the early 21st century, the multi-model mean underestimates the length of the shipping season in many regions of the Arctic Ocean, following a dipole-like pattern for moderately ice-strengthened vessels, with underestimates in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, and overestimates in the Kara and Barents Seas. Moreover, inaccurate ice thickness simulations hinder the identification of trans-Arctic routes through the Northwest Passage. Improved simulation of ice concentration has a greater impact on assessing the length of the shipping season for ordinary ships, while improvements in ice thickness substantially improve the assessments for ice-strengthened ships. Better simulation of ice thickness is critical for accurately identifying trans-Arctic routes for both types of vessels.</p><p></p>

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Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月29日

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  • Chao Min,
  • Qinghua Yang,
  • Hao Luo,
  • Frank Kauker,
  • Qi Shu,
  • Xin Wang,
  • Jiping Liu,
  • Dake Chen

摘要

Maritime activity in the Arctic is increasing, and climate change projections suggest that commercial vessels may soon have seasonal access to high-latitude waters. Accurate assessments of Arctic marine access are essential, yet the ability of climate models to reproduce historical navigability remains underassessed. Here, we show that the multi-model mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) underestimates overall Arctic navigability, despite capturing historical changes in summer navigable areas. Since the early 21st century, the multi-model mean underestimates the length of the shipping season in many regions of the Arctic Ocean, following a dipole-like pattern for moderately ice-strengthened vessels, with underestimates in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, and overestimates in the Kara and Barents Seas. Moreover, inaccurate ice thickness simulations hinder the identification of trans-Arctic routes through the Northwest Passage. Improved simulation of ice concentration has a greater impact on assessing the length of the shipping season for ordinary ships, while improvements in ice thickness substantially improve the assessments for ice-strengthened ships. Better simulation of ice thickness is critical for accurately identifying trans-Arctic routes for both types of vessels.