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<p>Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.</p>

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Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Yiling Huo,
  • Rudong Zhang,
  • Hailong Wang,
  • Aodhan Sweeney,
  • Qiang Fu,
  • Philip J. Rasch,
  • Yufei Zou,
  • Muyin Wang,
  • Weiming Ma

摘要

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.