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<p>Recent geopolitical crises have reshaped global shipping patterns, profoundly impacting related carbon emissions. Here, we utilize automatic identification system data from March 2021 to February 2024 and the ship traffic emission assessment model to investigate changes in carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that shipping carbon dioxide emissions in Ukraine’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone decreased by an average of 17.88% annually, while those in Romania’s and Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive economic zones increased by 36.30% and 16.08% annually, respectively. At the voyage level, shipping carbon dioxide emissions from maritime trade between Russia and the European Union obviously decreased, while those from maritime trade with certain Asian and Middle Eastern countries have obviously risen. The findings uncover the challenges to the climate change goal in the global shipping sector due to regional geopolitical crises.</p>

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Russia-Ukraine war has altered the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月16日

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  • Yuanquan Xu,
  • Pengjun Zhao,
  • Tingting Kang,
  • Kun Qin

摘要

Recent geopolitical crises have reshaped global shipping patterns, profoundly impacting related carbon emissions. Here, we utilize automatic identification system data from March 2021 to February 2024 and the ship traffic emission assessment model to investigate changes in carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that shipping carbon dioxide emissions in Ukraine’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone decreased by an average of 17.88% annually, while those in Romania’s and Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive economic zones increased by 36.30% and 16.08% annually, respectively. At the voyage level, shipping carbon dioxide emissions from maritime trade between Russia and the European Union obviously decreased, while those from maritime trade with certain Asian and Middle Eastern countries have obviously risen. The findings uncover the challenges to the climate change goal in the global shipping sector due to regional geopolitical crises.