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<p>Cropland changes modulate local temperature by altering terrestrial biophysical properties, yet the global sign and magnitude of this impact remain uncertain due to fragmented distributions and complex natural land-cover conversions. Using satellite remote sensing (2000–2020), we quantify sub-pixel-level biophysical effects on land surface temperature from global cropland expansion into both forest and non-forest vegetation. Our results show that cropland expansion into non-forest vegetation (87% of global conversions) induces spatially heterogeneous temperature responses. Summer cropland conversions caused net global cooling (−0.002 ± 0.000 °C per five years), with 50% attributable to non-forest vegetation replacement. Boreal regions (40°N–50°N) exhibited pronounced cooling (−0.02 ± 0.001 °C per five years), while tropical zones (0°S–10°S) experienced localized warming (+0.07 ± 0.001 °C per five years). Winter cropland conversions contributed minimally to boreal temperature changes but amplified tropical warming (+0.07 ± 0.002 °C per five years; 10°S–20°S). Temperature sensitivity to cropland fraction varied asymmetrically with background land cover: Complete non-forest vegetation replacement in the Northern Hemisphere yielded stronger summer cooling (−0.06 °C) than warming from reversed conversions (+0.02 °C), whereas maximum forest replacement warming (+0.78 °C) exceeded its cooling benefits (−0.55 °C). These findings highlight the summer cooling capacity in boreal non-forest vegetation replacement and reveal the risk of tropical cropland expansion to climate mitigation.</p>

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Global non-uniformity in biophysical surface temperature responses to cropland expansion over non-forest vegetation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月10日

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  • Menglin Si,
  • Zhao-Liang Li,
  • Xiangyang Liu,
  • Yitao Li,
  • Pei Leng,
  • Bo-Hui Tang,
  • Ronglin Tang,
  • Si-Bo Duan,
  • Meng Liu,
  • Chenghu Zhou

摘要

Cropland changes modulate local temperature by altering terrestrial biophysical properties, yet the global sign and magnitude of this impact remain uncertain due to fragmented distributions and complex natural land-cover conversions. Using satellite remote sensing (2000–2020), we quantify sub-pixel-level biophysical effects on land surface temperature from global cropland expansion into both forest and non-forest vegetation. Our results show that cropland expansion into non-forest vegetation (87% of global conversions) induces spatially heterogeneous temperature responses. Summer cropland conversions caused net global cooling (−0.002 ± 0.000 °C per five years), with 50% attributable to non-forest vegetation replacement. Boreal regions (40°N–50°N) exhibited pronounced cooling (−0.02 ± 0.001 °C per five years), while tropical zones (0°S–10°S) experienced localized warming (+0.07 ± 0.001 °C per five years). Winter cropland conversions contributed minimally to boreal temperature changes but amplified tropical warming (+0.07 ± 0.002 °C per five years; 10°S–20°S). Temperature sensitivity to cropland fraction varied asymmetrically with background land cover: Complete non-forest vegetation replacement in the Northern Hemisphere yielded stronger summer cooling (−0.06 °C) than warming from reversed conversions (+0.02 °C), whereas maximum forest replacement warming (+0.78 °C) exceeded its cooling benefits (−0.55 °C). These findings highlight the summer cooling capacity in boreal non-forest vegetation replacement and reveal the risk of tropical cropland expansion to climate mitigation.