Scholarlink

<p>Agricultural labor is highly vulnerable to heat stress. However, existing studies exploring the impacts of future weather conditions on agriculture have primarily focused on crop yields, often overlooking the effects on labor. Here, we incorporate labor response to heat stress into an established model-coupling framework to examine the effects of future weather conditions on agricultural market dynamics, considering both biophysical crop yield and labor productivity responses. Under a scenario with high heat stress and high sensitivity of labor to heat stress, global agricultural labor productivity could decrease by 18% by the end of the century, with especially pronounced effects in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Our results highlight the critical role of labor in agricultural production under future weather conditions and its high sensitivity to the choices of General Circulation Models and labor-heat response functions.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Omitting labor responses underestimates the effects of future heat stress on agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月23日

查看全文
  • Di Sheng,
  • Xin Zhao,
  • James A. Edmonds,
  • Stephanie T. Morris,
  • Pralit Patel,
  • Brian C. O’Neill,
  • Claudia Tebaldi,
  • Marshall A. Wise

摘要

Agricultural labor is highly vulnerable to heat stress. However, existing studies exploring the impacts of future weather conditions on agriculture have primarily focused on crop yields, often overlooking the effects on labor. Here, we incorporate labor response to heat stress into an established model-coupling framework to examine the effects of future weather conditions on agricultural market dynamics, considering both biophysical crop yield and labor productivity responses. Under a scenario with high heat stress and high sensitivity of labor to heat stress, global agricultural labor productivity could decrease by 18% by the end of the century, with especially pronounced effects in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Our results highlight the critical role of labor in agricultural production under future weather conditions and its high sensitivity to the choices of General Circulation Models and labor-heat response functions.