Scholarlink

<p>Infrastructure across the circumpolar Arctic is exposed to permafrost thaw hazards caused by global warming and human activity, creating the risk of damage and economic losses. However, losses are underestimated in existing literature due to incomprehensive infrastructure maps. Here, we mapped infrastructure from 0.5 m resolution satellite imagery of 285 Alaskan communities with a deep learning detection model. Combined with OpenStreetMap, we mapped a statewide Alaskan building footprint of 53 M m<sup>2</sup> and a road network of 50,477 km. With deep learning, we expanded the OpenStreetMap building footprint by 47% statewide and 86% on discontinuous and continuous permafrost. Doubling the amount found in existing literature by using our improved map, we estimated that building and road losses due to permafrost thaw could cost Alaska $37B to $51B under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Finally, we highlight shortcomings in U.S. national risk assessments, which do not account for Alaskan permafrost hazards.</p><p></p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Permafrost thaw-related infrastructure damage costs in Alaska are projected to double under medium and high emission scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月21日

查看全文
  • Elias Manos,
  • Chandi Witharana,
  • Anna K. Liljedahl

摘要

Infrastructure across the circumpolar Arctic is exposed to permafrost thaw hazards caused by global warming and human activity, creating the risk of damage and economic losses. However, losses are underestimated in existing literature due to incomprehensive infrastructure maps. Here, we mapped infrastructure from 0.5 m resolution satellite imagery of 285 Alaskan communities with a deep learning detection model. Combined with OpenStreetMap, we mapped a statewide Alaskan building footprint of 53 M m2 and a road network of 50,477 km. With deep learning, we expanded the OpenStreetMap building footprint by 47% statewide and 86% on discontinuous and continuous permafrost. Doubling the amount found in existing literature by using our improved map, we estimated that building and road losses due to permafrost thaw could cost Alaska $37B to $51B under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Finally, we highlight shortcomings in U.S. national risk assessments, which do not account for Alaskan permafrost hazards.