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<p>Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events (EXIODs) exert pronounced climate impacts both regionally and globally, which are closely associated with their sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Here we find an evident asymmetry in SSTA patterns between the positive (EXpIOD) and negative (EXnIOD) phases of the EXIOD. Specifically, the warm SSTA center of the EXnIOD eastern pole is confined south of Java, whereas the cold pole during EXpIODs is primarily located off Sumatra. Diagnoses with model experiments further reveal that the pattern asymmetry is attributed to the non-uniformly distributed nonlinear vertical heat advection and latent heat flux anomalies along the Sumatra–Java coasts. Due to pattern asymmetry, more frequent and intense marine heatwaves and extreme sea level rise events induced by EXnIODs occur along the Java coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the degree of pattern asymmetry and its influences on local marine disasters, thereby challenging accurate predictions of coastal extremes.</p>

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Pattern asymmetry in extreme Indian Ocean dipoles shapes marine heat-height compound extremes around coastal Indonesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月24日

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  • Mingmei Xie,
  • Jia-Zhen Wang,
  • Lei Zhang,
  • Weiqing Han,
  • Chunzai Wang,
  • Hanjie Fan,
  • Heng Liu

摘要

Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events (EXIODs) exert pronounced climate impacts both regionally and globally, which are closely associated with their sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Here we find an evident asymmetry in SSTA patterns between the positive (EXpIOD) and negative (EXnIOD) phases of the EXIOD. Specifically, the warm SSTA center of the EXnIOD eastern pole is confined south of Java, whereas the cold pole during EXpIODs is primarily located off Sumatra. Diagnoses with model experiments further reveal that the pattern asymmetry is attributed to the non-uniformly distributed nonlinear vertical heat advection and latent heat flux anomalies along the Sumatra–Java coasts. Due to pattern asymmetry, more frequent and intense marine heatwaves and extreme sea level rise events induced by EXnIODs occur along the Java coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the degree of pattern asymmetry and its influences on local marine disasters, thereby challenging accurate predictions of coastal extremes.