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<p>Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO<sub>2</sub> in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO<sub>2</sub> in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO<sub>2</sub>/year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.</p>

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Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月7日

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  • Kasra Motlaghzadeh,
  • Neil Craik,
  • Juan Moreno-Cruz,
  • Vanessa Schweizer,
  • Jay Fuhrman,
  • Keith W. Hipel

摘要

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO2/year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.