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The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

  • Jan Esper,
  • Jason E. Smerdon,
  • Kevin J. Anchukaitis,
  • Kathryn Allen,
  • Edward R. Cook,
  • Rosanne D’Arrigo,
  • Sébastien Guillet,
  • Fredrik C. Ljungqvist,
  • Frederick Reinig,
  • Lea Schneider,
  • Michael Sigl,
  • Markus Stoffel,
  • Mirek Trnka,
  • Rob Wilson,
  • Ulf Büntgen

摘要

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.