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<p>Hydrogen has gained attention as a key component of future low-carbon energy and industrial systems, with demand projected to increase from 100 Mt per year in 2024 to up to 1,370 Mt per year in 2050. However, there are concerns about the climate impact of the associated increase in hydrogen emissions. In this Review, we discuss the sources and sinks of atmospheric hydrogen and the resulting climate effects, including the use of metrics and implications for policy. Despite not being a direct greenhouse gas, hydrogen raises levels of methane, tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour, which are potent greenhouse gases. Estimates of the 100-year global warming potential of hydrogen converge at 12 ± 6 (90% CI). Such metrics are sufficiently robust to inform policy and business decision-making and to be included in climate impact assessments to maximize the benefits of a future hydrogen economy. However, substantial uncertainties remain, particularly in quantifying various sources of atmospheric hydrogen from human and natural systems (estimates have a range of 55–141 Tg per year) and understanding soil uptake rates (32–90 Tg per year). Future research should focus on improved quantification of hydrogen emissions, especially across the hydrogen system value chain, better constraints on the soil sink and a more complete representation of hydrogen chemistry.</p>

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Climate impacts of hydrogen emissions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Maria Sand,
  • Ilissa B. Ocko,
  • Tianyi Sun,
  • Ragnhild B. Skeie,
  • Didier A. Hauglustaine,
  • Nicola J. Warwick,
  • David S. Stevenson,
  • Fabien Paulot,
  • Gunnar Myhre,
  • Alex T. Archibald,
  • Marit Sandstad,
  • Srinath Krishnan,
  • Michael Prather

摘要

Hydrogen has gained attention as a key component of future low-carbon energy and industrial systems, with demand projected to increase from 100 Mt per year in 2024 to up to 1,370 Mt per year in 2050. However, there are concerns about the climate impact of the associated increase in hydrogen emissions. In this Review, we discuss the sources and sinks of atmospheric hydrogen and the resulting climate effects, including the use of metrics and implications for policy. Despite not being a direct greenhouse gas, hydrogen raises levels of methane, tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour, which are potent greenhouse gases. Estimates of the 100-year global warming potential of hydrogen converge at 12 ± 6 (90% CI). Such metrics are sufficiently robust to inform policy and business decision-making and to be included in climate impact assessments to maximize the benefits of a future hydrogen economy. However, substantial uncertainties remain, particularly in quantifying various sources of atmospheric hydrogen from human and natural systems (estimates have a range of 55–141 Tg per year) and understanding soil uptake rates (32–90 Tg per year). Future research should focus on improved quantification of hydrogen emissions, especially across the hydrogen system value chain, better constraints on the soil sink and a more complete representation of hydrogen chemistry.