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<p>Exposure to extreme high temperatures is a major constraint on global crop productivity, yet most large-scale assessments rely on fixed temperature thresholds that overlook regional variation in genetics, environment and management. Consequently, the temperature thresholds at which heat exposure begins to cause substantial yield loss and their spatial variability remain unclear. Here we compiled subnational yield census over Northern Hemisphere (20° N–55° N) and analysed the extreme degree days (EDDs) to estimate a data-driven critical threshold (EDD<sub>threshold</sub>). Our findings reveal EDD<sub>threshold</sub> for maize and soybean are 34.8 ± 4.0 °C and 33.7 ± 3.9 °C, respectively. In contrast, state-of-the-art crop models significantly underestimated EDD<sub>threshold</sub> and its spatial variations, leading to overestimated extreme heat exposure, partially explaining their underestimate in yield loss during extreme heat events. We estimate that without adaptations, growing-season extreme heat exposure could increase by 2.4%–16.1% for maize and 4.9%–16.0% for soybean by the end of the century, and sowing-date adjustment alone cannot fully offset the projected increase in extreme heat exposure.</p>

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Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Quanbo Zhao,
  • Chenzhi Wang,
  • Xuhui Wang,
  • Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei,
  • Christoph Müller,
  • Enli Wang,
  • Heidi Webber,
  • Liangliang Zhang,
  • Xiangyi Li,
  • Yuxing Sang,
  • Gang Zhao,
  • Christian Folberth,
  • Atul Jain,
  • Wenfeng Liu,
  • Masashi Okada,
  • Florian Zabel,
  • Jonas Jäegermeyr,
  • Hui Guo,
  • Yao Zhang,
  • Yu Jiang,
  • Feng Zhou,
  • Shilong Piao

摘要

Exposure to extreme high temperatures is a major constraint on global crop productivity, yet most large-scale assessments rely on fixed temperature thresholds that overlook regional variation in genetics, environment and management. Consequently, the temperature thresholds at which heat exposure begins to cause substantial yield loss and their spatial variability remain unclear. Here we compiled subnational yield census over Northern Hemisphere (20° N–55° N) and analysed the extreme degree days (EDDs) to estimate a data-driven critical threshold (EDDthreshold). Our findings reveal EDDthreshold for maize and soybean are 34.8 ± 4.0 °C and 33.7 ± 3.9 °C, respectively. In contrast, state-of-the-art crop models significantly underestimated EDDthreshold and its spatial variations, leading to overestimated extreme heat exposure, partially explaining their underestimate in yield loss during extreme heat events. We estimate that without adaptations, growing-season extreme heat exposure could increase by 2.4%–16.1% for maize and 4.9%–16.0% for soybean by the end of the century, and sowing-date adjustment alone cannot fully offset the projected increase in extreme heat exposure.