Scholarlink

<p>Sustainable development in resource-based cities (RBCs) remains a critical global challenge, particularly within China’s rapidly evolving economic landscape. Employing a comprehensive Inclusive Wealth Index framework combined with life-cycle theory and predictive modeling, this study systematically assesses sustainability performance and capital-driven mechanisms across 109 Chinese RBCs from 2012 to 2022, further projecting trajectories to 2030. Key findings reveal pronounced regional disparities in IWI, with central and eastern cities significantly outperforming their western and northeastern counterparts. The index was dominated by natural capital (36.63% in 2022) and human capital (34.76%). Overall sustainability increased by 42.57% (2012–2022), primarily fueled by produced capital accumulation. Growing and regenerative cities saw stronger wealth gains compared to grown-up or recessionary cities. Scenario-based forecasts suggest policy-dependent sustainability improvements over 2022–2030: Eastern cities show high growth potential, while northeastern cities face severe constraints due to inadequate capital accumulation. Our analysis uncovers critical capital restructuring trends. Regenerative cities are transitioning from natural capital dependence to produced capital dominance, whereas recessionary cities remain locked in low wealth-generation capacity. Emergent capital synergy patterns are observed, notably prevalent human and produced capital synergies versus pervasive natural capital trade-offs (especially human-natural capital conflicts in the northeast). Without timely intervention, the trajectory of grown-up cities risks bypassing regeneration and transitioning directly into decline. By integrating multi-dimensional capital assessment with predictive modeling and lifecycle analysis, this study provides actionable insights for tailoring SDG-aligned policies to regional contexts and city-specific developmental stages.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Escaping the natural capital trap: divergent wealth pathways and policy-sensitive futures for China’s resource-based cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

查看全文
  • Siwei Xi,
  • Kejia Yan,
  • Bo Zhang,
  • ChengHe Guan

摘要

Sustainable development in resource-based cities (RBCs) remains a critical global challenge, particularly within China’s rapidly evolving economic landscape. Employing a comprehensive Inclusive Wealth Index framework combined with life-cycle theory and predictive modeling, this study systematically assesses sustainability performance and capital-driven mechanisms across 109 Chinese RBCs from 2012 to 2022, further projecting trajectories to 2030. Key findings reveal pronounced regional disparities in IWI, with central and eastern cities significantly outperforming their western and northeastern counterparts. The index was dominated by natural capital (36.63% in 2022) and human capital (34.76%). Overall sustainability increased by 42.57% (2012–2022), primarily fueled by produced capital accumulation. Growing and regenerative cities saw stronger wealth gains compared to grown-up or recessionary cities. Scenario-based forecasts suggest policy-dependent sustainability improvements over 2022–2030: Eastern cities show high growth potential, while northeastern cities face severe constraints due to inadequate capital accumulation. Our analysis uncovers critical capital restructuring trends. Regenerative cities are transitioning from natural capital dependence to produced capital dominance, whereas recessionary cities remain locked in low wealth-generation capacity. Emergent capital synergy patterns are observed, notably prevalent human and produced capital synergies versus pervasive natural capital trade-offs (especially human-natural capital conflicts in the northeast). Without timely intervention, the trajectory of grown-up cities risks bypassing regeneration and transitioning directly into decline. By integrating multi-dimensional capital assessment with predictive modeling and lifecycle analysis, this study provides actionable insights for tailoring SDG-aligned policies to regional contexts and city-specific developmental stages.