Scholarlink

<p>Flooding from short-duration extreme rainfall poses growing risks to rapidly urbanizing regions under climate change. This study integrates 2035 urban planning into simulations of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in the Pearl River Delta Metropolitan region. Results show that while urban planning has limited impact on reducing overall hazard, it plays a critical role in redistributing it spatially. Flood hazard and exposure in 2035 were assessed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Hazard decreases by about 10% in SSP1, remains stable in SSP2, and rises in SSP3 and SSP5, with SSP5 showing a 12% increase. Population exposure grows across all scenarios, with increases of 21% in SSP1, 25% in SSP2, 13% in SSP3, and 56% in SSP5. Asset exposure shows even larger increases, from 29% in SSP3 to more than 100% in SSP5. These results highlight that while urban planning can alleviate hazard locally, long-term resilience is dominated by socioeconomic development trajectories.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Modeling urban planning contributions to flood resilience under shared socioeconomic pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

查看全文
  • Wenhan Feng,
  • Yimeng Liu,
  • Anqi Zhu,
  • Junqi Mao,
  • Tianyi Sun,
  • Qingsong Xu,
  • Yuhan Yang,
  • Hao Su,
  • Wenhao Wu,
  • Qiqi Yang,
  • Alistair Ford,
  • Matthias Garschagen,
  • Liang Emlyn Yang

摘要

Flooding from short-duration extreme rainfall poses growing risks to rapidly urbanizing regions under climate change. This study integrates 2035 urban planning into simulations of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in the Pearl River Delta Metropolitan region. Results show that while urban planning has limited impact on reducing overall hazard, it plays a critical role in redistributing it spatially. Flood hazard and exposure in 2035 were assessed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Hazard decreases by about 10% in SSP1, remains stable in SSP2, and rises in SSP3 and SSP5, with SSP5 showing a 12% increase. Population exposure grows across all scenarios, with increases of 21% in SSP1, 25% in SSP2, 13% in SSP3, and 56% in SSP5. Asset exposure shows even larger increases, from 29% in SSP3 to more than 100% in SSP5. These results highlight that while urban planning can alleviate hazard locally, long-term resilience is dominated by socioeconomic development trajectories.