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<p>Since the 1980s, China’s rapid urbanization has profoundly influenced local drought conditions by altering ecological, environmental, and meteorological systems. However, the role of urbanization timing in shaping drought dynamics—particularly drought duration, severity, intensity, and frequency—remains underexplored. This study investigates the impacts of urbanization on drought characteristics across mainland China using a comprehensive dataset of weather station observations spanning 1951–2020. Stations were categorized based on their urbanization timing: early-urbanized (U<sub>b</sub>: before 1985) and recently urbanized (U<sub>a</sub>: after 1985). Results reveal that early-urbanized stations consistently exhibit drought exacerbation, especially for short-term drought frequency (ΔTND) and severity (ΔMDS, ΔMDI), with regional mean urban effects (MUEs) reaching up to +36%. In contrast, recently urbanized stations show more heterogeneous responses, with up to 50% demonstrating drought mitigation effects—particularly at longer timescales (SPEI-12)—with MUE reductions as large as –36%. These patterns suggest that modern urban design, green infrastructure, and adaptive planning in newer developments may help alleviate some drought risks. The findings emphasize the importance of accounting for urbanization timing and land-use history when assessing climate risks and planning for urban resilience. Sustainable urban planning and water balance-sensitive design are essential for addressing the multifaceted challenges of urban-induced drought under ongoing climate change and population growth.</p>

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Urbanization’s dual role in the exacerbation and mitigation of drought dynamics in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月6日

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  • Karam Alsafadi,
  • Jiwei Sun,
  • Irfan Ullah,
  • Amit Kumar Srivastava,
  • Frank Ewert,
  • Boufeniza Redouane Larbi,
  • Shuoben Bi,
  • Shengchang Yang,
  • Feifei Wang,
  • Wenzhi Cao

摘要

Since the 1980s, China’s rapid urbanization has profoundly influenced local drought conditions by altering ecological, environmental, and meteorological systems. However, the role of urbanization timing in shaping drought dynamics—particularly drought duration, severity, intensity, and frequency—remains underexplored. This study investigates the impacts of urbanization on drought characteristics across mainland China using a comprehensive dataset of weather station observations spanning 1951–2020. Stations were categorized based on their urbanization timing: early-urbanized (Ub: before 1985) and recently urbanized (Ua: after 1985). Results reveal that early-urbanized stations consistently exhibit drought exacerbation, especially for short-term drought frequency (ΔTND) and severity (ΔMDS, ΔMDI), with regional mean urban effects (MUEs) reaching up to +36%. In contrast, recently urbanized stations show more heterogeneous responses, with up to 50% demonstrating drought mitigation effects—particularly at longer timescales (SPEI-12)—with MUE reductions as large as –36%. These patterns suggest that modern urban design, green infrastructure, and adaptive planning in newer developments may help alleviate some drought risks. The findings emphasize the importance of accounting for urbanization timing and land-use history when assessing climate risks and planning for urban resilience. Sustainable urban planning and water balance-sensitive design are essential for addressing the multifaceted challenges of urban-induced drought under ongoing climate change and population growth.